The overnight lending rate between banks, set by the Federal Reserve. It's the anchor for virtually all global asset prices. • Decided at 8 FOMC meetings per year (Jan, Mar, May, Jun, Jul, Sep, Nov, Dec) • Rate hikes → stronger dollar, downward pressure on stocks/real estate, higher bond yields • Rate cuts → weaker dollar, upward pressure on stocks/real estate, lower bond yields • 0–0.25%: Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) — 2008–2015, 2020–2022 • Above 5%: Tightening cycle — 2023–2024 Fed's dot plot reveals individual committee members' rate forecasts, while CME FedWatch tool shows market-implied probabilities for the next FOMC decision in real time.